SPRINGFIELD - Favorable harvest weather.
Corn flirting with $4 a bushel. Soybeans
at $10. It brings to mind the old beer
commercial line: It doesn't get any
better than this.
Or does it?
With the fall harvest in and farm
profits projected to set a record this
year, attention among farmers and
economists has turned to just how long
the boom can last and to the possible
ripple effect of high farm prices on
consumers.
"This is unique. This is really the
second consecutive year of these kinds
of conditions, and it looks like it's
more or less permanent," said Darrel
Good, professor of agricultural
economics at the University of Illinois.
Well, as permanent as the cyclical
nature of farm prices ever is, Good
added.
Rural Rochester farmer Jimmy Ayers
finds himself in the midst of a typical
year for Illinois farmers - corn yields
at 145 to 235 bushels an acre, soybeans
at 43 to 53 bushels an acre and crops
that are in early, thanks to a dry fall.
"I was done September 30. I've been
doing this 22 years, and this is the
first year I have ever finished by the
end of September," said Ayers, who farms
800 acres of corn and soybeans with his
wife, Cydney.
"It's an unbelievably high market. .
. . This won't last forever, but at what
point it'll go down, I don't have a
clue," said Ayers.
Also true to statewide trends, about
70 percent of Ayers' acreage was planted
in corn this year. Corn acreage
nationwide is up significantly in
response to the demand for corn-based
ethanol.
"This year has been a very good year
for corn, and on the bean side, it's
been average," said Matt Montgomery, a
crop education specialist with
Sangamon-Menard County Extension.
Montgomery said he expects local corn
yields to be at about the
188-bushel-an-acre average estimated in
late summer.
"It's also been a very early harvest.
It's one of the earliest harvests any of
us have ever seen," he said.
According to a U.S. Department of
Agriculture report released Monday,
Illinois corn and soybean harvests were
98 percent complete, compared to a
five-year average of 92 percent and 95
percent, respectively.
Grain prices also have been driven up
by export demand, especially from Asia.
And while a glut of ethanol pulled down
the price of the alternative fuel this
fall, experts foresee little letup in
demand for corn.
"There are just so many factors that
go into the price of corn. We're in such
a global market that, even if it's not
ethanol, it's international trade," said
Jim Birge, manager of the Sangamon
County Farm Bureau.
Corn on the Chicago Board of Trade
was priced about $3.75 a bushel Monday
and traded at more than $4 for May 2008
contracts. Soybeans traded at $10.05 per
bushel, a price that was projected to
continue increasing into 2008.
Record farm profits - the federal
government estimate of $87.1 billion for
2007 compares to $28.1 billion in 2006
and a 10-year average of $57.4 billion -
don't necessary translate into
aisle-to-aisle increases in prices at
the grocery store, said Paul LaPorte,
bureau chief for the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics in Chicago.
"It just really fluctuates," said
LaPorte. In fact, energy, transportation
and apparel prices accounted for most of
the increase in the latest Midwest
consumer price index released in
September.
But record corn and soybean prices do
bring other concerns, including higher
feed costs, the cost of transportation,
storage and rising farmland prices.
Good also pointed out the cost of
renting farmland has begun to increase.
"The big question is how big a piece
could they (landowners) get or should
they get," said Good.